Art of investments


Investment Outlook Third Quarter 2020 Update

Jul 6, 2020

Investment Summary

  • The first stage of market recovery from the collapse and bottom reached in Q1 has played out. A further market rally requires economic growth and earnings to get back close to 2019 levels, although  this is uncertain.
  • Yields in the developed world are close to zero, while equity valuation multiples look quite demanding;
  • We see a 20% probability of a significant second leg of economic contraction due to a second wave of COVID-19 case growth in Russia, see our Bear Case Scenario on slide 9;
  • In our Base Case Scenario, we expect Brent crude oil prices to average USD 40/bbl in 2H20 and USD 45/bbl in 2021.  We believe the OPEC+ agreement and reduced global energy sector investment, combined with a recovery in demand as of 3Q20, might create a deficit of 3-4 mbpd in 2H20. The probable deficit in 2021 is 1.5 mbpd.

Investment Preferences

  • We turn Neutral (down from OW) on Russian equities, UW Russian hard-currency debt (down from EW), OW GEM Debt and Neutral (up from UW) on RUB debt;
  • We Like Retail, Real Estate and Precious Metals within Russian equities;
  • We are Neutral on Oils, Base Metals, Banking, Telecoms and Utilities;
  • We prefer to be Underweight Gas names in the current environment.

icon_pdf.gif   Full version of the report could be found attached.

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